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Scenario planning: How To

Way back when, say 3.3 million years ago, in what is now called the Early Stone Age of Africa, a group of young male lions is on the prowl. The group of Lomekwians studying tracks only a few kilometres away are too far to smell or see …

Scenario planning is a way of studying tracks for understanding the dynamics that might shape the future. This choreography is basic:

  • Pin down a decision focus to prevent the choreography from degenerating into purposeless speculation about infinite futures.
  • Identify forces that ordinarily work well outside our concerns and usually catch us unaware.
  • Identify predetermined elements, forces that are completely outside our control and will play out in any story we tell about the future.
  • Gather resources for further research of elements for developing scenario logics.
  • Develop scenario logics for exploring critical uncertainties and for finding desired deviations from official futures to work backwards from.
  • Flesh out stories for putting some meat on those bones.

en/systems/scenarios/howto.txt · Last modified: 2019/09/16 06:16 by Digital Dot